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Every year I will talk about this. I have a little more advertising data in the past. I have also adjusted my ideas this year. I don’t have a lot of advertising in the newspaper industry this year. I am talking about the deeper things in the newspaper market. Because I have been thinking about why the industry environment has changed in more than a year, only the Internet has developed, the netizens have increased, and the blog has come out. Besides these reasons, the deeper reasons are, so I want to think today. Do some sharing with you in this regard.
There are a lot of newspaper bosses calling me at the end of the year and asking Teacher Yao what the situation is like this year. How about the situation next year? You can help us to see it. Because we have to plan, we must set a goal, increase 15% or 12%. There is a basis, we ask how much real estate grows, how much the car needs to grow, give me a saying, find me to ask for data. Today, I don’t talk too much data at this meeting. In fact, there is a report from Liang Zong, every month. If you don’t need to find me, you can see this market.
Today, when I talk about the proposition of the advertising market, I will quote a sentence. This is what a columnist in the United States mentioned. It is the traditional mass media industry, the telecom industry, and the industry, all of which will be integrated into a new industry. This new industry will be It is called "big media industry." The big media industry will not only show new growth in the explosion, but also cause the inward collapse. All companies will invest in the same market, not in alliance with others, or in fighting with objects that have never competed in the past. . This is the killing of the game beyond the "keyboard", you must be powerful "changing the car." We can see that the telecommunications industry, the information technology network industry, and the traditional media have been combined. There are channels through telecommunications, those that pass through the network, and those that pass traditional TV and radio channels. There is no way to separate them now. This is a big media industry situation, which is bigger than the all-media concept we are talking about.
Can you master the future by just mastering the keyboard? No. It has gone beyond the keyboard. We are now in such a situation. I think that in our ten years, our social economy to our media industry advertising industry is a decade of dramatic changes. In this year, if you can’t get a "changing car" Be behind. We can see in various forums that people are talking about the changes in the media and telling a lot of data. What kind of trend is this change? This morning and afternoon guests mentioned the size of the netizens and the size of the audience. We don't talk about the trend of the media, there are several trends that we should pay attention to.
Fragmentation, we talk about the fragmentation of the audience, the fragmentation of netizens, we rarely talk about the fragmentation of the media. How does the media fragmentation manifest itself? Our unique content is getting less and less. I have a news. The final dissemination result must not be exclusive to this media. It must be spread in many ways. So the terminal changes the way of communication. In addition to our own initiative to change, it is more important that the audience becomes the disseminator of the content. This is a point.
Second, the media engagement behavior of the audience will break the constraints of time and space, which means that the future marketing interception of the audience will be based on the terminal and time positioning level. Ad serving is no longer a fixed time period, a fixed location, and a mentally-targeted delivery that matches the time position of the audience will become mainstream. Mass advertising still exists, but the effect is declining. Our country still relies mainly on mass media for marketing. There are a lot of products that still use mass media, such as some consumables, fast-moving consumer goods are still needed.
The third trend is that media marketing will have a negative impact on the audience impact model. From the unidirectional transport of cramming to the secondary propagation, the influence is continuously amplified, and all terminals will provide channels for secondary propagation. Entering the big media industry and entering the social communication circle is an inevitable trend. Secondary transmission, multiple transmissions, and dissemination through different media will become effective channels of communication.
The fourth trend, the mouth of man, we used to call word of mouth. And now through our fingers, through our mobile phone. Why can it be realized by mobile phone? It is because of Weibo, blog, socializing, and mobile network. In this case, we find out how our media brand and media communication enter such a word-of-mouth communication. The process is to integrate our mass communication with the spread of the people. The spread of our media, of course, under the leadership of the Communist Party, we have a guiding problem in communication, there is a paradox problem, but we have to change one kind of thinking, we are in the service of the recipient of our information, we are in a service The concept of the past is not to consider providing services. The idea of ​​establishing such a service would be a platform for dissemination. Of course, all our situations will be affected by our political system. Our media market with Chinese characteristics and policies will also influence the market trend of the media.
I talked about it faster now. Now let me talk about the roots of the media environment writer. Knowing the roots is a help for us to understand change, and it is helpful for us to find the direction of change and find our place. In the past, we talked less about this aspect. Generally speaking, we say that the roots of media writers, we will talk about economic development and technological revolution, but few people talk about demographic changes.
Economic development can be done in terms of numbers. Last year's per capita GDP was 5,432, which is the number published by the National Bureau of Statistics. This level has already been called the level of wealth. According to international sayings, more than 3,000 US dollars have entered medium-rich, and we are not simply rich. In this case, we must pay attention to the changes in the level of demand. We do news, do media, and do any industry to face consumers. When the needs of consumers change, we must keep up. Maslow's theory of hierarchy of needs, I believe that the following two levels mainly solve the problem of food and clothing, and the above is the value of consumption after the entry into the well-off stage and the rich stage, mainly to meet the value needs. It is any product I consume, it will bring me a value satisfaction, which is the core concept that affects the 3.0 era - value marketing. We can expand and talk, but I don't have much time. Why is China developing so rapidly that it surpasses any country? Why is China developing so fast in the world just because we have money? No, this is one of the reasons. Many of us have not raised to such a rich level, but still enter such a state. We note that the high form of human-level demand is self-fulfillment. But Maslow said a word, he thinks that the pyramid should be reversed, and the basic need should be self-fulfillment. Can it be said that only rich people can realize themselves? Weibo tells us that people without money can also achieve themselves, but the methods and methods of implementation are different. This tells us that we do news, newspapers, how to meet the reader's reading needs, not just tell him one thing. I don't talk about this. This one is marketing from 1.0 to 3.0. The 3.0 era treats consumers as a complete person. In addition to spending power, he has independent thoughts, hearts and spirits. This way can be a complete person. Use this theory to think about how we treat our consumers as a complete person. When we come to this world alone, the basic values ​​of human beings and the desires of human beings, and the requirements of human self-realization are realized from an early age.
The second is the technological revolution. I only talk about one question, the top-down and bottom-up, the impact of the technological revolution on us. The top-down change is a change in the quality of communication. Through the technological revolution, we have gone from black-and-white television to color television. Our newspapers range from black and white to color, and we can advertise in various forms. This is the quality of our communicator's communication, and it is improved in quality. I call it the top-down technological revolution. Then from the bottom up through the terminal, so that each of our audience has become a communicator, this can not stop, with a mobile phone can send a mobile phone, you can have fans, then this bottom-up communication, What is changing is the mode of communication. It changed the whole mode of communication. In fact, the technological revolution has caused a bottom-up result in reforming our mode of communication. This is not much to say.
The following is the demographic change. This is not much we say. Especially when we advertise, it is rarely said from the perspective of demographic change. In fact, demographic change is one of the reasons for changing society, psychology, values, politics, economy and communication, and we know the spread. Changes and these are intertwined and inseparable. We talked about a concept called baby boomer, which is the peak of the birth of a baby in the world after the second world war. It was 28.2% in the United States from 1946 to 1964, but the income is all personal income. More than half of it. The baby boomer generation is the X generation, this generation is the short-term era of fertility. The next generation is the Y generation, the generation from 1977 to 1994. This is basically a child in the baby boom. After 80, it is basically equivalent to the Y generation.
What is the use of this analysis? This is the data that we continuously test TCR. This is the urban situation. What is the relationship between his income and consumption power? The high income range is 30 to 40 years old, and the high consumption is also 30 to 40 years old. . Why do we do newspapers, so that our newspapers are well maintained at 30 to 40 years old. This is a requirement of the advertising situation. People in this decade may account for more than 10% of the market share. This problem exists in China. It exists in the United States in Europe. We have seen an important problem here. Because the growth environment is different, the economic environment is different, and people have different ways of ending the media and gaining ideas and values. We only talked about the 80s and 80s, and when they were sensible, they grew up with the Internet.
What happened to the media with the generation that grew up with the Internet? I have never seen a newspaper since I was a child. I only saw my mom and dad holding a newspaper, but I never read it. Will he read the newspaper again? Can we pull him back? I think this answer is not self-evident. In the case of such a demographic change, there have been many changes in the newspaper reader market. From last year to the year before, only one year, according to the CTR test data, our newspaper readers lost 3.5 million, but the scope of our test It's not very big. We are investigating in the city. It is not in the whole country. It means that there are 3.5 million fewer cities in the 60 cities we tested. This means that a newspaper with a large circulation is gone, which is still big. Among them, the number of readers has decreased, the Metropolis Daily, the Metropolis Daily has dropped by 6.1% in one year. It is terrible. Other newspapers are also falling, but the speed is relatively slow, and the fast is the Metropolis Daily. Age is aging. One is that young people do not read newspapers. The proportion of newspapers under 35 is 47.6% in 2005, and in 2011 it dropped to 31.3%. Let's take a look at what is the change after 50, 60, 70, and 80. After 50 and 60, it has hardly changed. After 70, it dropped a little. The significant decline is that people in this age group after the 80s, 62% to 53.5%, that is, young people do not read the newspaper. Then, those who have dependence on newspapers, who read newspapers every year, reached 112 after 80, 80 after 80, and 70 people still read financial editions. There is also a network. When you encounter problems, think of the network first. After 80, it is 38, 70 is 118, and 50 to 60 is 66. This is a very significant difference. Now that I am willing to spend more time online, the answer after 80 is 153, and after 60, only 55.80 is basically online every day.
Why share this data with everyone? This tells us a question. Can we pull back after 80, pull back to see our newspaper, my personal opinion is impossible. Your newspaper will be revised again, and it will be beautiful again. You will follow the post-80s to do the news and do weekly magazines. He won't. He sees it online at most, and it is ok on mobile phones. This is a change in our market.
Then the change in the advertising market, this is the change in the cost of traditional advertising from January to August, and only the newspapers in traditional media have declined. A more terrible question is whether we are 7.3%, no. This is the change in the amount of advertising resources we count, the change in TV advertising duration, and the number of newspaper advertisements reduced by 18%. This data is relatively true. So Secretary Ding said in the morning, he thinks that the newspaper dropped by about 15%. I agree with this view. Let's take a look at the growth rate of our advertising in this decade. We see that the green curve is for newspaper advertisements. The other three curves are real estate, commercial retail and automobile. Everyone sees this as a leading curve. We know the proportion of real estate, automobiles and commerce in newspaper advertisements. When all three industries are not good, all three industries are negative growth, and newspapers are better off, almost nowhere.
This is the situation this year, real estate fell 13.3%, commercial retail fell 11.5%, and cars fell 6.6%. A little better is medicines, personal items, alcohol, drinks, but this is not the main industry. I won't go into details.
What will happen to the future trend of China’s newspaper industry? We have seen that over the years, everyone has been working hard, using various methods, and by means of digitalization, we are also increasing the number of reading electronic newspapers with new media and new technologies. After 50, 60, 3.%, 11.2% after 70, 15.9% after 80, what is the arrival rate, called the annual arrival rate, just now I said that the previous arrival rate is the behavior of the day, this is the behavior of the year, this also Tell us that digital terminals are still in contact with 80s. Through surveys, we analyzed the total number of newspapers. The average daily readership of its electronic version has also seen a certain scale. Newspaper websites are better than electronic ones, this is a mobile terminal. We have mobile phone boards, and tablets are actually developing and constantly improving. This also confirms what our newspapers said about their achievements in the development of the whole media. Through mobile phones and tablets, the annual rate of arrival in the post-80s exceeded 23%, both higher than 70 after 60. This is Weibo, this is the reader of our newspaper, this is the number of fans of the newspaper Weibo, which has already been reached. We also know that some newspapers have launched "cloud newspapers", two-dimensional code, which has taken a new step. Most of the newspapers we have here have not yet opened. Here we think about the future, I think the future is a time, today is today, tomorrow is tomorrow. When we face helplessness, we give no help to the future. The future is that we are waiting for the disposal of today's behavior. If we can't afford it today, we won't have any commitment to the future. The reality of the future is done today, and it is made up of today’s desires, a projection of the facts that have not yet arrived.
What is the future of the newspaper? Today, due to time, I just want to talk a few questions, it may not be important, but I want to talk about it. Now is the time when our editor-in-chief is at 12 o'clock, and when it is delivered to the readers at 7:00 in the morning, most of the above news is already known to the readers, especially some important news readers already know. Now people know, we are also called news, how to do this, there must be a change, how to turn, it needs to be considered.
The second question, we have been doing this for so many years, I ask a question. All of these changes have a basis for the origin, called the newspaper, we have not left the newspaper. From the fact that we are doing all-media, we are thinking about standing in the newspaper. Do we have no advantage in leaving the newspaper?
The third question, the basis of today's newspaper reform is the change of means, or the change of mode, or the change of communication form. I think it is the latter. Up to now, from the mobile phone to the cloud reading, it is all about the means of communication, but not really changed in the mode of communication. So, what is the future, I don't know, but I believe there is one point. We want to restore the audience to people, to know the emissaries, to know marketing, and we must build on the concept of a service. We want to establish a platform communication concept, not to say that we set up you to sing, but to enter the audience platform, the audience is the protagonist, we are guest. In this way, our Weibo is good, and our newspapers are good, so that we can achieve compound type and dependence. So we need a disruptive innovation, not a maintenance innovation. We need to break things in the past, maybe we will find a way out.
So who is our opponent in the future, is our newspaper in the same city? Yes, but not, but more competitors may not be our current competitors. We are in a big media environment. We have to adapt to such an environment to find the future direction and way out. My speech is here, thank you.
Analysis on the Trend of China's Media Change and Newspaper Advertising Market
[ppzhan Abstract] "The 5th China Newspaper and Advertising Conference and the 2011-2012 China Newspaper Advertising Value List" was held in Tianjin on October 25, 2012. Yao Lin, CTR market research consultant, gave a speech titled "China Media Change and Newspaper Advertising Market Trends".