PCB industry overview: The first quarter is not the off-season; the rating is raised to good (top)

A, PCB introduction

PCB is short for Printed Circuit Board. A printed circuit board is a substrate for assembling electronic components, and is a printed board that is designed to form a point-to-point connection and a printed component on a universal substrate. The main function of this product is to make all kinds of electronic components form the connection of the predetermined circuit and play the role of relay transmission. It is the key electronic interconnect of electronic products and is called the "mother of electronic products." Printed circuit boards are used as substrates and critical interconnections for electronic components, and any electronic device or product must be equipped. Its downstream industries cover a wide range of areas, covering general Consumer Electronics, information, communications, medical, and even aerospace technology products. With the development of science and technology, the demand for electronic information processing of various types of products has gradually increased, and emerging electronic products continue to emerge, making the use and market of PCB products continue to expand. Emerging 3G mobile phones, automotive electronics, LCDs, IPTV, digital TVs, and computer replacements will also bring a larger PCB market than the traditional market.

PCB is the most basic component of the information electronics industry and belongs to the electronic components industry in the electronic component industry. According to the number of layers, the PCB is divided into single-sided board (SSB), double-sided board (DSB) and multi-layer board (MLB); according to the softness, the PCB is divided into a rigid printed circuit board (RPC) and a flexible printed circuit board ( FPC). In the industry research, generally according to the basic classification of the above-mentioned PCB products, the PCB industry is subdivided into six main subdivisions: single-panel, double-sided, conventional multilayer, flexible board, HDI (high density sintering) board, and package substrate. industry.

The PCB industry is a typical cyclical industry. Historically, the period is generally 7-8 years, but with the acceleration of downstream demand updates, it is gradually shortened to about 4 years. The high points of the recent economic boom occurred in 1995, 2000, and 2004 respectively. Unlike ink, LCD panels and memory products, the price trend of CCL is mainly driven by the cost of raw materials, while the price of PCB is greatly affected by the balance between supply and demand.

Second, PCB industry chain

Classified according to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, can be divided into raw materials - copper clad laminates - printed circuit boards - electronic products applications, the relationship is simply expressed as:


PCB industry chain (Source: GF Fund)

Fiberglass cloth: Fiberglass cloth is one of the raw materials for copper clad laminates. It is woven from glass fiber yarns and accounts for approximately 40% of the cost of clad laminates (thick plates) and 25% (thin plates). Fiberglass yarns are calcined into liquids from raw materials such as silica sand in the kiln. They are drawn into very fine glass fibers through very fine alloy nozzles, and then twisted into hundreds of glass fiber yarns. The investment in the construction of the kiln is huge, and it generally requires billions of dollars of capital. Once it is ignited, it must be produced 24 hours a day, and the cost of entry and exit is huge. Fiberglass cloth manufacturing is similar to that of weaving enterprises. It can control the production speed and quality by controlling the speed, and the specifications are relatively simple and stable. Since the end of World War II, there has been almost no change in the specifications. Unlike CCL, the price of fiberglass cloth is most affected by supply and demand, and prices have fluctuated between 0.50-1.00 USD/m in recent years. At present, Taiwan and China's domestic production capacity accounts for about 70% of the world's total.

Copper foil: Copper foil is the raw material that accounts for the largest proportion of the cost of CCL, accounting for about 30% (thick) and 50% (thin) of the cost of CCL. Therefore, the price increase of copper foil is the main driving force for price increase of CCL. The price of copper foil is closely reflected in the price change of copper, but its bargaining power is weak. Recently, as copper prices have risen steadily, copper foil manufacturers have been in a difficult situation, many companies have been forced to close down or have been merged, even if the copper-clad manufacturers accept copper foil. Copper foil manufacturers are still in a generally lossy state due to rising prices. Due to the emergence of the price gap, it is highly probable that another wave of price increases will occur in the first quarter of 2006, which may lead to an increase in CCL prices.

CCL: CCL is a product in which a glass fiber cloth and a copper foil are pressed together by a fusion agent such as an epoxy resin, and is a direct raw material of a PCB. After being etched, plated, and laminated, the CCL is made into a printed circuit. board. The demand for capital of the copper-clad laminate industry is not high, about 30-40 million yuan, and production can be stopped or converted at any time. In the upstream and downstream industry chain structure, CCL has the strongest bargaining power. It can not only have a strong say in the purchase of raw materials such as fiberglass cloth and copper foil, but also can transfer the pressure of rising costs as long as the downstream demand is acceptable. Downstream PCB manufacturers. In the third quarter of this year, the CCL began to increase its price, and the price increase ranged from 5-8%. The main driving force is to reflect the price increase of copper foil, and the strong downstream demand can absorb the upward pressure on CCL manufacturers. The world’s second-largest copper clad laminate manufacturer South Asia also increased product prices on December 15th, showing that at least PCB demand in the first quarter of 2006 was in good form.

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